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From the report:
Ironically, we are headed up down the same self-destructive road for other kinds of traditional media,as good. Five years into the video-over-the-Internet revolution, we have got word two things. For the first time; consumers won”t pay for content on the web, so it will have to be ad supported. And second; it won”t be ad supported.

In the cable TV network world, half of all revenues come from affiliate (carriage) fees paid by the Comcasts and
DirecTVs of the world. The other half comes from promoting. But in the TV world, a distinctive half hour show bears out an ad load of about 8 minutes.

On the web, other evidence intimates that consumers will tune up out – click off – if they are haled to see more than 30 seconds or indeed of publicising up front, and peradventure another 90 seconds of advertising over the next thirty minutes. Hulu.com, for example, which has already been lionized by many as the future of TV, dishs two minutes of advertising for every 22 minutes of programming(i.

e. the programming duration of a distinctive half hour show from television). Arrogating selfsame CPMs for web video and TV, and after accounting for turned a loss affiliate fees, a 30 narrow program on the web with two minutes of advertising paies around 1/8th as much revenue per viewer.

Are contented producers cooked to shrink production costs…by 88%?

In fact, the factual economics of web-founded video are far, far forged than this. Our 88% decline neglects the vitriolic impact of à la carte on traditional video economics. In the public debate in Washington, the phrase à la carte refers to the idea that a few firm networks require the carriage of a host of unaccented ones, in effect subsidise a much bigger family of channels.(From MC: This is something HDNet vehemently defends and is working towards terminating) But there’s a much more of import aspect of web-based àla carte that is seldom mentioned-that is, the “à la carting” of the few betterest shows from the rest of the day’s schedule. Or even uncollectible, of the betterest few moments (news stories?) from the rest of the show. On the web, following SportsCenter not but fleeces ESPN of its ability to carry through carriage fees for ESPN Classical and ESPN U (and SoapNet and Toon Disney), it as well, and much more significantly, soaks ESPN of its ability to expend SportsCenter to underpin the economics of the rest of the 24-hour ESPN schedule. And keeping an eye on simply the betterest 30 seconds of SportsCenter fleeces ESPN of its ability to sustain the economics of… good, you catch the idea. Awaiting a few ad sustained shortclips on the web to substitute for the affiliate fee revenues lost by multiple networks 24 hours a day is lunacy. “

Bully job Craig.

The concept he delineates as the “ala carting” of the betterest from the rest is the web video consumers favourite feature, but it’s as well the largest risk to professional video content producers all over. On the Internet, the producers of the most democratic content don’t have the promotional platforms that traditional media does. There are no lead ins for Internet shows up. So there is 100 pct uncertainty as to how many people will take in any paid video. For those videos that do turn democratic, a good deal of the popularity is viral, confining the producers ability to monetise the escalation in popularity.

The Darwinian response to this problem has been to serialise shows. The hope is that if a viewer cared a show, they will come backward for more. Which of course signifies they are simulating traditional TV’s approach to content presentation and engrossing all of the same problems. The changeless need to brush up a show is not simply hard, its expensive. The invariant need to further the show to stand up out in an ala carte universe of an limitless number of shows is still more hard than it is expensive.

Indeed where does this leave behind main video content on the Internet ? The right way in the hands of Google and Youtube and blackened and white-hot hat SEOs.

The ala carting of video on the net will do good those who enable the search for content and can monetise that search.

The economics of holding content will storm severally brought forth Internet content to be dumbed down to levels that make a stark match for Youtube. There will be SEOs that follow up with arbitrage solutions that will take traffic to parked videos. Contented creators will partner with SEOs and make budgets that think over the CPMs they can realize in and around the video hosted on Youtube against the costs of the SEO geting traffic to the video. SEO support will be the only even marginally efficient way to make baseline traffic to a video/show.

Who could have infered that making financially succesful video on the net would ask the same commercializing skills as laboring traffic to parked domains ?

Content created by and for TV networks will have to create some of import decisions. Why wouldn’t advertisers desire to be one of only 2 minutes of ads in a 30 narrow TV picture instead than one of 8 mins of ads on traditional TV ? Will they compensate correspondingly bigger CPMs to be on-line ?

Are TV networks creating a vast mistake by laying their current TV schedules online for spare ? If a welled out TV depict merely has 2 mins of commercials, will that take some viewers to choose catching online ? Will it storm networks to shrink their TV usher ad load ? If thus, by how much ? Specially if and when over the top video enables Internet video to be laid out right on TVs. Will shows up be haled to present dissimilar versions of shows, say with unlike ratings as a means of differentiating TV from welled out shows ? The R shoped version of Friday Night Lights online and the PG version on TV ?

Bottom line is that something has let to present. Business as common is not becoming to hack it. The question is whether the dollars the large TV and media companies are making online from the streaming of their current TV lineups are sustainable incremental dollars ? Or is pullulating the video a collateralized video obligation ? The video equivalent of the collateralized debt behind the sub premier mess. Money that fronts sound while its making out in, but could lead to far, far large problems ?

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Craftsman Style Architecture Doing A Comeback
Quick attempt at a formalizing roman numeric parser… Lots of gotchas.

In September I will be addressing once more at the Business of Software conference, being kept this year in Boston.

And lastly, for something completely unlike, don’t omit the Jam Session at Tech-Ed on June 3^rd.  Several of us minions from SourceGear are bing after to read the stage and pay our rendition of Pinball Wizard.  It’ll be me on acoustical guitar, our development manager Jeremy Sheeley on bass, and our product manager Paul Roub runing the Evil Mastermind Schecter PT that will be paid off later that week.

And BTW, none of us will be trimed as The Vicious Mastermind.  This should be obvious, as The Vicious Mastermind would ne’er do something in reality nerveless like a song by The Who.  Kind of, he would do something like a Kelly Clarkson song and erroneously trust it was nerveless. 

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Perchance someplace in this world is a developer considering honest-to-goodness code that I droped a line, avering “WTF!?!?”.   I’m certain I as well had a reason…

• Grease one’s palms a domain name and take up hosting in two places. Project Distributor.com should be up fairly before long to company MarkItUp.ASPXConnection.com
• Have people host their ain versions of the application. And that implies a large source release is in the future. At this juncture risk fragmentation.
• Design out fragmentation with a series of cunning features that will get everyone desire to employ the application at hand.

I’m hither to talk about the last two, since Darren already corrupted some extra hosting for us. The concept will be to free a fairly static version of the application so that groups can host tools, code snippets and other source/binary releases for their teams to partake in. The application is very lightweight and well-heeled to set-up, so it won”t require a bunch of hand holding and configuration to get up and running initially. From our standpoint we resolve a number of issues at this juncture. The most obvious problem is what we separate the Lutz Roeder use case..NET Reflector is the central type of application we’500 love to catch hosted because it makes believe it a bit well-fixed to find oneself, not that Google does a tough job, we’d simply like to get a bunch of tools in one place, with some features for feedback, novel releases, and some nerveless client tools for printing.

At present, Lutz would set up his application up and he’d walloped our bandwidth. He is the premier example of someone that should be hosting their ain tools, but peradventure applying our interface. He doesn’t have to, we haven’t even asked him yet in fact, but if he decides to do so, then all the better for the web application moving forward. Users such as Lutz belike desire a sure level of control over their ain sites as good in terms of posting and commanding access. This will simply come from hosting the application yourself (and perhaps some other features we’ll run across later).

From a security standpoint many teams will too desire to host their ain servers. In this manner they catch control over the hardware their sources and binaries are stacked away on. They can take tools up to any maximal (rather of our levyed limits) and leave limitless download bandwidth if they take. Or they can get hold of advantage of our gating mechanisms to get sure their server doesn’t catch overloaded with downloads and open up their tools up to the public.

The only major problem from this source release is that the initial problem we were proving to lick, advertising the visibility of tools, sets about to fret. You witness, the more sites that host their ain tools the harder it is to witness the right-hand site with the right-hand tools. We are stressing to resolve this in a number of ways. The first is taking into account users of a site to stash away bookmarks to other projects and outside resources. This is exclusively a irregular fix, because it stock-still doesn’t permit a mass search and categorization infrastructure required to in truth push the visibility of the tools being hosted. We have to occur up with a solution that takes all of the sites, but we don”t want to create just another portal or gateway site. That is drilling. Nowadays you have the background, thusly how will we lick the fragmentation issue?

Planing off Fragmentation
I won”t lie to you, I’ve implemented this model several times, but have never had a project that was capable of really showing off the feature set we are about to talk about. The concept is to commix all of the sites, by leaving them to easy handle views of data from all of the sites aggregated. Each site possesss their ain content, keeps their ain users, but in turn peers with other sites to find extra content.

Web services allow for a double feature kicked in this model. At the current level they permit us to yield really heavy client-side tools for pulling off, intimately, your tools! We have a drop-client target right at present so you can trail and drop newfangled releases to subsisting projects in just now a few seconds. Some raw tools for working with build systems to push the source code up to the server are in the works. We natively integrate with your RSS reader and will have our ain watchful services in the drop client simply in case you don”t have one. There aren’t any search or local hoarding features, but those are as well planned for the drop client so you can background download raw releases, simply like Windows Update.

That doesn’t work out fragmentation though, that simply prepares me realise how much work I have bequeathed to do. The second feature of web services lies in the ability for each site to aggregative data from the many other sites that are out at that place hosting the application. Think of, everything we give uncommitted at the service layer can likewise at present be remoted. The more stashing we put into the data layer, the more performant the full process will be, and we can yet tune up the caching depending on whether the data layer is mixing off-site contents or database contents.

Peer Sites
I’m surely there is another name out at that place somewhere, but for the past 2 years I’ve sent for these peer sites. Each instance of the project distributor will have a number of options allowing imparting peers that will be combined and added to the local collection while users cross the site. The first step is to start out the peer sites running in a read-only mode. And typeset up some really with child options so the intact process can be ensured. This resolves a number of use case scenarios for us including the surveiling.

• Fragmentation can be mitigated through right configuration. If everyone combines 5 or 6 sites into their peers, and then we have a vast network at present of interlinked peers and users can cull and select which one they use for purposes of looking for the tool network.
• Peer connections are unidirectional or bidirectional. Access is configurable. Teams can admit tools from international sites while saving their ain tools completely secret. They can exist behind a DMZ or a secret network.
• Users can host their ain personal tool sites in the same manner as the team sites. They can configure statically which contrives to create uncommitted yet. In this way you can establish a collection of personal tools that you bang, and have the up-to-the-minutest information mechanically update on your machine for your perusal.

Peer sites figure out plenty of visibility issues, but that is pretty much all they solve for at present. We nonetheless desire to enable all of the features uncommitted to the client tools. After all, the web service methods and proxy infrastructure is in place to do so much more.

Master Sites
Well, we desire to resolve another problem. That is where you cut your data. A master site is where the users, groups, projects, etc… are all hosted, but thankfully, you’ll be capable to log in through any site (accepting it is peered with your master site) and and so edit out your ain projects and such. This is a outside master context and is really one of the nerveless features associated with the peering functionality of project distributor. We’ll be fully untroubled in our login and credentials region, but regrettably we’ll stock-still be transplanting data in unresolved text in the little term. Mayhap we’ll pay off that with enough push backward.

Clone Rides
A clone site is where we indue a site to act on behalf of a master site. For me, my local project distributor is presently cloned to the independent project distributor site. What does this mean? Right nowadays it haves in mind I grow all of the data from PD, and that users who desire my site can log-in to their project distributor accounts and cross edit data. Pretty skillful if you enquire me. It fundamentally implies you can full host a project distributor installation and ne’er, of all time have to instal a database server. Users can simply follow up on behalf of a outside server.

Configuration
This isn’t a tiptop recyclable model like some of those you read some in the democratic software architecture books, and it in all likelihood accounts for why master/peer/clone sites don”t exist very often. The considerations for every option are to a great extent customized to the problem being worked, and I’m certain we’ll be producing modifications or updating the configuration context for a while. Right at present you can severally configure your basal server type, whether master or clone, whether or not users can employ you for a pass-through authentication and edit server, whether or not web services are enabled so peers can enable unidirectional only communications, preparing up asymmetrical security credentials. Man, you mention it and it is in there

For the peer section we have total and selective modes. A wide-cut peer draws all of the data on the distant peer topically for display (in a delay hiving up manner, exactly like you’d require, unless you planted up a scheduled pull which is too potential). I ask most people to configure replete peers because they truly are really loose to set up up and keep. A selective peer is where you particularise the groups/projects that you desire to exhibit. This is best for a user arranging up their ain personal toolbox who requires to take a couple of items from many dissimilar peers.

We have an extensively thorough configuration module already and we’ll be unceasingly imparting more to it. The concept is to easy change your toolbox to your ain designs without having to extend to the code. If we haven”t given you enough options to satisfy your need then we’ll have to make something up, because I’m just about running out

These are the basics of the model ideas I have for project distributor. That doesn’t think Darren doesn’t have other with child ideas passing off as intimately. He has some pretty extended UI enhancements, but I’ll get him talk about those. We yet have another product idea that is kind of a bolt-on for project distributor, but that is belike a couple of months out laying it into next year. Unluckily we have too many ideas for our ain ripe right at present. Better than not having any ideas I hazard. I’ll render to set down some code with some of the ideas supra, that way you can make a look at how the intact system is followed up. I have some diagrams as considerably, but I’m far besides fatigued right at present to supply the img tags to the HTML view.

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But what about the Google Index, all the websites that are indexed by Google ? What is it deserving to be in the Google Index ? What would you, as a website owner require in order to take your site from the Google Index and no longer be uncommitted when someone does a google search ?

It should simply be a matter of dollars and cents and sense, shouldn’t it ?

How many websites would have to recuse themselves from the Google Index before Google Search was negatively touched on ?
Mahalo.com intends it demands to sustain the 25k most common search terms in order to be successful. What would encounter if MicroSoft or Yahoo or a MicroHoo attended the 5 top results for the top 25k searches and compensated them to allow the Google Index ?

A theoretic maximum of 125k sites, but with overlap, in all probability closer to 100k or less, times how much per site on average ?

The math starts out to pay back interesting. At $1,000 per site median times 100k sites, thats only when $ 1 Billion Dollars. The distribution would plain favour the bigger sites, indeed of that billion dollars, would the top 1k sites get hold of 500k each and the resting 99k parted the rest ?

Kicked in the stakes, why stop at $ 1 Billion Dollars ? Would the top 1k most inspected sites accept a coolheaded $1mm each, plus a committment from MicroSoft or Yahoo to labor traffic through their search engines to more than make up up for the turned a loss Google Traffic. After all, one time consumers realised that Google no longer had valid search results for the top 25k searchs, that traffic would most belike go to MicroSoft and Yahoo.

And why we are at it, why not ask that these 100k sites switch from Googles Publisher Network to Yahoo’s or MicroSofts ? It would start up to take in backward the $1 Billion compensated out very apace.

On top of that, in order to grease the skids even further, why not make out publicising credits to the sites that exchanged off Google ? Its delicate dollars, that would sweeten the pot and take more traffic.

IN essence, its no dissimilar that any other content aggregation play. Its paying for content. But, It would accept some heavy ones to consent it and visit if it turned. Still, without question, every search engine has some number of core sites, that when removed from its index , destabilises the value of its search.

The question is how many ? What would it bed to get down that number of sites to move around Google off and rest off, and would the traffic created as users switch from Google more than compensate for the cost ?

Or would Google know the risk and leap in and offer up more to websites to rest ?

For certain would be interesting to chance out.

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Sometimes, it’s the small things..

Part of this strategy takes insuring that client expectations couple developer and project expectations.  I be given to utilize the essayed and honest approach; “Plan for the spoiled, hope for the betterest”.

Some people view me as a pessimist, but I implore to dissent – I view myself a misanthropical, yet affirmative, realist.  By that, I think of that although I do design everything based upon the spoilt case scenario, in my heart I really consider we are geting going to reach the betterest case scenario every time.  It oft surprises me when people read my approach to be electronegative while at the same time, I frequently consider their set about primitive & overly affirmative.

The truth is that there appears to be a gradient scale of attitudes and philosophies employed from project to project depending upon the people conducting and participating in the project.

Over the years, I began a individual game in my head of making nicknames for the dissimilar patterns of behavior.  Hither are a few names of I have toyed with in the past:

“Require the spoiled, then add 20%” - The Pessimist

“Ask the spoiled, hope for the betterest” - Rectifyed Pessimist

“Require the betterest” – Mr. Optimist

“Require the best, but steel oneself against the regretful” – Lit Optimist

“Plan for the regretful, hope for the betterest, but require something in between” – Uncle Realist

“Simply do it!” - El Toro

“It is what it is.” – Aunt Apathy

“I don”t want to hear about risks, just tell me when it’s done.” – The Ostrich

“Oh, you arent done yet?” – Captain Oblivious

“How much longer?” – The Waiter

Which one are you?  Is there one philosophy or attitude you believe works better than others?

We just posted some updated bits and samples for ASP.NET Dynamic Data… I encourage you to go pick them up and let us know what you think…

Some cool new stuff in this release:

1. Visual Studio Integration is much cleaner
2. Now supports "pretty" URLs
   http://products/details/1 instead of http://products/details.aspx?id=123
3. Full documentation
4. Additional support for 3rd party control vendors and O/R Mappers (more details coming soon)

Scott Hunter recently did a HanselMinutes podcast that you should check out..

ScottGu did a post recently that hits the high points of Dynamic Data… 

Give them a try, we’d love to have your feedback!

http://code.msdn.microsoft.com/dynamicdata

http://blogs.msdn.com/brada/archive/2008/04/23/updated-asp-net-dynamic-data-bits-posted.aspx

Also see: Video games

Also see: JSR-294 Superpackages

Tagspace * is a social bookmarking service for software professionals** that encourages sound sleep and sweet dreams by enabling you to be better informed, better connected, and more productive. The more you use Tagspace, the more you’ll wonder how you survived for so long in the cramped quarters of your Web browser’s Favorites folder.

WARNING: TAGSPACE IS ADDICTIVE. REPEATED USAGE MAY CAUSE INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY.
*Tagspace has been shown to be effective in helping to prevent and reduce memory decay.
**No animals or software engineers were harmed in the making or testing of Tagspace.

For more information about Tagspace, see:

Screencast (direct stream): intro2tagspace.wvx Screencast (on MSN Soapbox): intro2tagspace.wmv Text Overview: Tagspace Beta Refresh Overview
Product Roadmap: Microsoft.Community Today and Tomorrow   (…because this is just the beginning.)
Tagspace: In the News
Subscribe: RSS

How about those business rules? Business rule engines haven’t been around as long as databases, but times are a-changin’. Imagine a world where the folks that come up with the rules can enter them, test them and even deploy them without having the development team so much as lift a finger. Costs are signifigantly lowered, deadlines are met, everyone gets bonuses and is promoted to figurehead VP positions.

Interested? Please stop by and check out our webcast next week:

Rules for Enterprise Agility: Webcast, March 15th, 11am CT
IT architects, application developers, business analysts and process owners will learn about best practices for rules-oriented architecture and application development, and how business rule engines can provide substantial benefits in consistent decision making, increased revenue and decreased operating costs.

Also see: Uniqueness Typing Simplified

Also see: JSR-294 Superpackages

Featured speakers include industry analyst and veteran application development expert Dr. Adrian Bowles, and Larry Buettner, CIO of Wheels, Inc. and a member of ComputerWorld’s 2006 list of Premier 100 IT Leaders.More information: http://www.inrule.com/Event_Info.aspx

http://weblogs.asp.net/jkey/archive/2006/03/10/439991.aspx